Opuscula Fallacy of polls

A RECENT POLL by the ABC News/Washington Post determined that

Nearly one in 10 Americans say it is “acceptable” to hold neo-Nazi or white supremacist views, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

The survey found that 13 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of respondents supporting President Donald Trump deemed neo-Nazi views as acceptable.

See http://tinyurl.com/ydx3ux7q for full article

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish via landline and cellphone calls from Aug. 16-20 a few days after the confrontation in Charlottesville.

Having been on the creation end of surveys for a number of years, I know full well that a well-thought out survey ALWAYS can produce whatever results the survey developer desires.

The old “proof” was asking a person Are you still beating your spouse? No matter what the answer, one spouse is admitting that he/she beat the other spouse.

An easy trick is to preface the questions with If you were a (whatever), what would you do/think/say?

How about All *** are extremists and all extremists need to be separated from good people. Do you agree? Depending on who is being asked, change the three asterisks to whatever group to be disparaged.

It’s even simpler if the surveyors can pick the people to question.

If a surveyor asked a group of — say — Hillary Clinton supporters if they believe Donald Trump could do a good job in Washington, the response would be (almost) 100%, a resounding NO! Turn that around and ask a bunch of people wearing Make America Great Again shirts or hats: Should Hillary Clinton be investigated for her illegal server (or Benghazi)? and, again, almost 100% of the responses will be YES!.

Unless we can see the pollsters’ questions and the demographics of the people polled, it is highly unwise to put any stock in a poll’s results.

Some people think statistics can as easily be manipulated as polls. Since I am not a statistician, I can’t — won’t — offer an opinion.

I DO know polls and, as a pollster in my newspaper days, I can say without apology that I don’t trust polls even when they support my point of view.

‘Course I also don’t trust today’s media — print, digital, audio, or visual (tv).

There was a time when I thought most of what I read was accurate; at least if my byline was over the story. As an editor, I challenged my reporters on their facts — just as my editors had challenged me.

Those were the days when reporters had to attribute everything. Apparently — from what I see on the web today — that requirement has been long forgotten. No source? No matter. “An unnamed source said…” satisfies the editors. (Who is the “unnamed source?” The person one desk away.)

 

PLAGIARISM is the act of appropriating the literary composition of another, or parts or passages of his writings, or the ideas or language of the same, and passing them off as the product of one’s own mind.